Birchy will probably laugh at me here and I guess I'm prepared for it, but I just had a look through the excellent tutorial which takes you through the basics of getting a bot started using Visual Basic 2008. That tutorial can be found
here:http://bdpsupport.betfair.com/ics/support/default.asp?deptID=2805Found a few things with it, most of them positive. One, it is incredibly fast. The returns from my java bot are slooow in comparison to the returns from the VB2008 one.
The second is how incredibly simple visual basic is to use. I'm sure there are complicated things in there, but to be honest, most of it seems fairly simple. Lots of Withs and so on, which I wish worked in Java, although thats just syntax. And now I think about it, its quite possible I've seen something like the With statement in Java. I think programmers are a funny lot - not many people are pleased to have their ignorance exposed like this. I am though.
One negative thing I found was that their doesn't seem to be an obvious JTable replacement in VB2008 - feel free to contradict me if I'm wrong though.
Anyway, to make sure I don't get hit with a -1 Off-topic (oh thats slashdot) I'll say this:
cluckhead, I started off with absolutely no idea of programming but an interest in making money. Someone introduced me to Betfair a few months before I was due to start a basic Java programming course at the open university. Didn't take me long to discover the API and from there, I've been programming little bots here and there and everywhere, using Java. I'm currently considering a couple of different languages to bot in, generally to try to break myself out of a single way of thinking, which I have heard is good practice for programmers.
It looks like I'm rambling here, but I have a purpose.
Jump in with both feet, but use a sensible amount of caution at the same time. It sounds like you are planning something along the lines of using a weight of money calculation in order to determine your bets and so on, possibly with a bit of momentum trading in there as well. Unlike the betfair forums, I don't think anyone here has a problem with momentum trading - to my mind it increases the liquidity and volatility of the market, which can only be a good thing.
The way I do my bots is by designing a simulation mode to get the algorithms right, then switching to a live mode as soon as possible. Simulation mode is easy enough to do, just don't forget to use the delay figure given to you by the API when you place your bets. If you place a back bet at 1.8 and the price drops to 1.76 within the delay period, you won't be matched. If you don't factor in the delay, your simulation mode won't give you accurate figures. In the same way, factor in the amount available when you place the bets. If you place the bet ok but there is nothing there to be matched, it can throw your trading figures right off.
Using spreadsheets and gruss and so on is great to get an idea of whether your system will play and to analyse your results, but as the other guys have said, get as close to the action as possible. That means pare away the layers and resign yourself to the fact that you are just about to embark on a fairly steep learning curve, with fantastic possibilities at the top of it.
You will get a lot of support from the guys here, just remember the golden rule when you are asking a question in a tech forum: Make sure you know exactly what question you are asking and show that you have made a decent effort at solving it yourself. Satisfy those two criterion and you will find there is no such thing as a stupid question, it is just a question you personally haven't found an answer to. Some of the maths questions I have asked here are embarrassing when I reflect on them, but sometimes thinking about something too much turns your brain to mush.
Have fund with it!