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chumby

rookie botter

Posts: 10 Member Since: June 15, 2013

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January 21, 2014 00:23:41

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Hi all,

Haven't been around here for while (Hi Birchy) but thought for 2014 I would try a refocus a bit on bot building!

Just thought I would post the link below regarding David Walsh and the Bank Roll.  One of the world most successful gambling groups trading billions a year.  As some indication of how much they punt it is reported that Zeljko Ranogajec (their leader) accounts for 1/3rd of Australia's total Betfair activity!

Always hard to find any real detail of what they do - but David gives some insights here.

http://www.afr.com/f/free/blogs/christopher_joye/david_walsh_wisdom_beats_the_odds_jNn5N3DuXxfFPVghVTD0PM

Might make good reading,

Cheers,
Chumby
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jimmybob

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Posts: 15 Member Since:August 28, 2013

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January 30, 2014 22:52:32

Interesting read.

I guess he is using something like the Kelly criterion

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

to size bets, using the probabilities he forecasts.

I was thinking of doing this, but it is quite a lot of work to develop a 'statistical model' that forecasts the probabilities.  However, this article suggests a good starting point - start from the implied probabilities the betfair odds give you, and try to determine a single factor or maybe two that the market may under/over price.  That way one doesn't need to build a complete model that takes a set of inputs about the horse/track/weather etc. and gives a probability.
 

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